Shares swung between gains and losses in Japan and edged lower in Australia, with shortened sessions in Hong Kong and Sydney for Christmas Eve. US equity futures were little changed in Asia after a gauge of the “Magnificent Seven” technology megacaps rose 1.4% Monday, offsetting weaker-than-expected US consumer confidence data.
“This is the time of the year when there’s a lot of noise and little to no signal in price action,” said Kyle Rodda, senior market analyst at Capital.Com. “There’s a high chance of a pretty slow day for the region and an uneventful rest of the week as a high proportion of the markets log off for the holidays.”
MSCI’s Asian equity benchmark is headed for its first quarterly loss since September 2023, losing 7.1% over the period, even as the S&P 500 has risen 3.7%. Sentiment has soured in Asia in recent months due to concerns over higher global tariffs threatened by US President-elect Donald Trump, a stronger dollar and China’s lackluster economic recovery.
Treasury 10-year yields were little changed Tuesday at 4.58%, while Bloomberg’s gauge of the dollar climbed 0.1%, holdings around a two-year high after a US government shutdown was averted.
Nissan Motor Co. shares slid as much as 7.3% in Tokyo after the company confirmed it’s in talks with Honda Motor Co. over a possible business integration. Honda shares climbed as much as 14%.South Korea data published Tuesday showed consumer confidence dropped this month by the most since the outbreak of Covid-19, battered by the political turmoil triggered by President Yoon Suk Yeol’s declaration of martial law and his impeachment. That will raise concerns about a further slowdown in private spending and boost speculation that the Bank of Korea may consider a rate cut in January. Australia’s central bank said it is more confident inflation is moving sustainably toward target but it’s still too soon to conclude the battle is won given a recent pick-up in consumption and a still-tight labor market, minutes of its December meeting showed.
On Wall Street, the S&P 500 closed up 0.7% Monday and the Nasdaq 100 rose 1%, while a gauge of US-listed Chinese shares gained 0.9%.
“Primary uptrends remain intact for equities despite the recent profit-taking,” said Craig Johnson at Piper Sandler. “Given the short-term oversold conditions, we expect a ‘Santa Claus Rally’ to be a strong possibility this year.”
The S&P 500 is on its way to record a stellar annual return and back-to-back years of more than 20% gains. The index has risen about 25% since the end of 2023, with the top seven biggest technology stocks accounting for more than half of the advance.
Whether or not the gauge will be able to stage a “Santa Claus Rally” continues to be a barometer of investors’ optimism into the new year. That seven-day period includes the last five trading days of the old year and the first two of the new one.
Oil steadied in thin trading ahead of the holidays, with focus on a strengthening dollar and President-elect Donald Trump’s roiling of international politics. Gold edged higher.
