When the Supreme Court overturned Roe v. Wade in 2022, the majority of justices decided that the right to an abortion should be left up to individual states. Two years later, thousands of Americans in parts of the U.S. with strict abortion bans are deciding to leave those states, new research finds.
Following the Dobbs decision, the 13 states with strict abortion bans, from Alabama to West Virginia, collectively lost a net 36,000 residents per quarter, meaning the difference between the number of people leaving the states versus those migrating in, according to the analysis from economists at Georgia Institute of Technology and The College of Wooster and published this month by the National Bureau of Economic Research.
The analysis, which is based on change-of-address data from the U.S. Postal Service, found that the state impact is larger among single-person households, which may suggest that younger people are moving out of abortion-banning states at a higher rate than families. That could be due to the greater challenges for families in trying to move, given the need to change schools or uproot careers for parents.
A problem for states that ban abortion?
While often framed as a cultural or religious issue, access to abortion also has far-reaching economic implications both for individuals and society at large. For instance, the financial toll on women without access to abortion services has been well documented, with the Turnaround Study finding that those denied the procedure had higher rates of financial problems and were more likely to rely on government aid like food stamps.
The new research indicates that states with abortion bans could face long-term economic consequences if they lose significant numbers of residents — especially younger workers who are typically vital to a state’s workforce.
“In terms of the implications for states’ economies, our results suggest that employers in states with bans may face challenges in attracting and retaining workers, especially younger workers, which could impact economic growth and development,” the researchers, Georgia Institute of Technology’s Daniel L. Dench, Jason M. Lindo and Kelly Lifchez and The College of Wooster’s Jancy Ling Liu, wrote in an email to CBS MoneyWatch.
The study didn’t discern whether those moving out of states with abortion bans were men or women, or where they landed, including in states that have protected abortion. But the impact is significant enough that, over a five-year period, abortion-banning states could lose almost 1% of their population, the researchers said.
Abortion bans and a weak safety net
Separately, many of the states with strict abortion bans are failing to provide adequate safety nets, an analysis by the Associated Press found. These range from difficulty accessing programs such as food stamps to a lack of access to doctors due to maternal care deserts.
Republican state leaders in Tennessee — one of the 13 states with a total abortion ban — argue that they are bolstering services for families. For instance, Tennessee boosted its Medicaid coverage for mothers in 2022 from 60 days postpartum to a year, which enabled an additional 3,000 moms to use the program each year.
But Tennessee fared poorly at enrollment in the Special Supplemental Nutrition Program for Women, Infants and Children, Medicaid, and in having enough maternal care and requirements for paid family and medical leave, according to an October study published in the American Journal of Public Health. Other states with abortion bans, including Alabama, Georgia and Missouri, also ranked poorly on a number of measures, the analysis found.
Women with young children in states where abortion is banned or limited to early weeks of pregnancy said it can be tough to obtain social services, according to a survey by the health policy research organization KFF. Nearly half said it’s difficult for women in their state to get food stamps, for example, compared with 3 in 10 in states where abortion is generally available.
“People who claim to be pro-life, who advocated for these abortion bans, often suggest that these policies are designed to protect children, women and families,” said Dr. Nigel Madden, lead author of the study. But weakness in the safety net shows “the hypocrisy of that argument.”
Meanwhile, many younger Americans are paying attention to a state’s access to reproductive care. In a 2022 Axios poll, about 6 in 10 people 18- to 29-years-old said a state’s abortion laws would sway their decision on where to live from “somewhat” to “a lot.”
To be sure, there are many reasons why people opt to move out of a particular state, the Georgia Institute of Technology and College of Wooster researchers noted. “And abortion-ban states are different from states protecting or maintaining abortion access in other ways besides their policies on abortion,” they added.
But a lack of access to reproductive choice, social services and medical care may make abortion-strict states less attractive to some residents, particularly young Americans, the study concluded.
contributed to this report.
