On Friday, the Nifty closed 103.55 points, or 0.41%, higher at 25,285.35.
Commenting on Nifty’s trend, Rupak De, Senior Technical Analyst at LKP Securities, said the index’s Friday gain helped it break out of the recent consolidation range. He expects the positive momentum to continue as long as it sustains above key moving averages. “The setup looks favorable for a further rise in the short term. Any dip would provide a good opportunity to enter long trades. On the higher end, the Nifty may move towards 25,500–25,550, while on the lower end, support is placed at 25,150. A fall below 25,150 could weaken the trend slightly,” De said.
Key factors likely to impact market movement this week
1. Q2 earnings
Over 200 BSE-listed companies will announce their September quarter results this week. In the Nifty pack, key names include HCL Technologies, Tech Mahindra, Axis Bank, HDFC Life Insurance, Infosys, Nestle India, Wipro, JSW Steel, Reliance Industries, HDFC Bank, ICICI Bank, and UltraTech Cement.
Among non-Nifty companies, IDFC First Bank, Yes Bank, Indian Railway Finance Corporation (IRFC), IndusInd Bank, and HDB Financial Services are also slated to report results.The market will additionally react to DMart’s earnings announced on Saturday.2. Trump’s China tariff threat
Asian markets, including India, may react to U.S. President Donald Trump’s threat to impose additional 100% tariffs on China from November 1, after Beijing introduced “extraordinarily aggressive” export curbs on rare earth minerals. “Based on the fact that China has taken this unprecedented position… the United States of America will impose a tariff of 100% on China, over and above any tariff that they are currently paying,” Trump said on Truth Social.
3. U.S. markets
Trump’s comments weighed on U.S. equities, which ended sharply lower on Friday.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 878.82 points, or 1.90%, to 45,479.60; the S&P 500 dropped 182.60 points, or 2.71%, to 6,552.51; while the Nasdaq Composite slipped 820.20 points, or 3.5%, to 22,204.40.
Indian markets are likely to take cues from U.S. market movements.
4. IPO watch
The primary market is expected to stay relatively quiet, with only one new mainboard IPO — Midwest — opening for subscription. Bidding will conclude for three ongoing mainboard issues and three SME offerings.
All eyes will be on the highly anticipated listings of Tata Capital and LG Electronics, scheduled for Monday and Tuesday, respectively. Eight other companies are also set to debut on the bourses during the week.
5. Corporate action
Several key corporate actions are lined up this week.
October 14 (Tuesday): Record date for the 1:10 stock split of Tata Investment Corporation, the Tata Motors spin-off, and the rights issue of Utkarsh Small Finance Bank.
October 15: Record date for Tata Consultancy Services’ (TCS) interim dividend of Rs 11 per share.
6. FII / DII activity
Foreign institutional investors (FIIs) turned net buyers last week, purchasing equities worth Rs 3,603 crore over five sessions. On Friday alone, FIIs bought Rs 459.20 crore worth of Indian stocks. Domestic institutional investors (DIIs) were also net buyers at Rs 8,391.2 crore for the week, with Friday’s purchases totaling Rs 1,707.83 crore.
7. Technical factors
According to Bajaj Broking, Nifty formed a sizable bullish candle with a higher high and higher low on the weekly chart, signaling continuation of the uptrend. The index also closed above its short-term moving averages, retracing over 80% of its previous decline (25,448–24,588).
“The index will maintain a positive bias and head higher towards 25,450, the confluence of the September 2025 high and the trendline resistance connecting the major highs of September 2024 and June 2025. A move above 25,450 will open further upside towards the June 2025 high of 25,670,” Bajaj Broking said.
The brokerage sees a dip-buying opportunity this week. “We have revised the support base higher towards 25,000–24,900, which coincides with last week’s low and the 20- and 50-day EMAs,” it added.
8. Rupee vs Dollar
The Indian rupee closed stronger on Friday at 88.6850 against the U.S. dollar, compared with 88.7825 in the previous session, aided by RBI intervention. The currency recently hit a lifetime low of 88.80.
Analysts are divided on the outlook. While some expect further weakness, others believe the worst may be over as valuations turn attractive. FX advisory firm IFA Global maintains a moderately bearish view, projecting an implied range of 88.40–89.30 over the next six weeks, Reuters reported.
9. Crude oil
Brent and U.S. crude futures fell sharply on Friday as the risk premium eased following reports of a Gaza peace agreement between Israel and Hamas.
U.S. WTI crude settled at $58.24, down $3.27 or 5.32%, while Brent futures were around $62.73, lower by $3.13 or 4.80%.
Crude oil prices have a direct impact on inflation, as higher fuel costs raise transportation and input prices, triggering broad-based price pressures.
10. Bullion buying
With Diwali just over a week away, festive sentiment has picked up, and investor interest in gold and silver is rising as consumption and safe-haven demand move in tandem.
Equities, however, have seen some pressure. After falling 22% in August, net inflows into equity mutual funds declined for a second straight month to Rs 30,422 crore in September — a 9% drop from August’s Rs 33,430 crore.
In contrast, investors poured record sums into gold exchange-traded funds (ETFs), with inflows rising fourfold to Rs 8,363 crore — the highest-ever monthly inflow for the category.
(Disclaimer: Recommendations, suggestions, views, and opinions expressed by experts are their own and do not represent the views of The Economic Times.)
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