Timing markets is a fool’s game, says Mark Mobius. Here’s why the ‘Bald Eagle’ favours midcaps

Investor and author Mark Mobius has always dismissed market timing as a “fool’s game,” arguing that stock markets move for a reason and that those attempting to predict their swings are more often wrong than right.

“People often ask how I time the market. The simple answer is, I don’t. I’ve never believed in timing the market. Trying to guess which way the wind will blow tomorrow is a fool’s game. Markets rise and fall for reasons that don’t always make sense. Those who spend their time predicting daily market swings tend to spend a lot of time being wrong,” Mobius said in a blog post.

Joseph Bernhard Mark Mobius, author of 12 books, has spent over 30 years investing in emerging markets. He has invested in more than 5,000 companies and managed assets worth Rs 40 billion. He is also nicknamed “The Bald Eagle” in a recent comic book.

Here are 5 key takeaways from his blog post:

1) Be ready for the right timeWhile Mobius is averse to timing, he emphasises that the investors should be prepared to find the right opportunities. “… you still have to be ready to move when the time is right. A couple of weeks ago, I mentioned in an interview that my new fund, the Mobius Emerging Opportunities Fund, was holding about 95% in cash. That got more attention than I expected. Some thought it meant that I’d given up on the market. I obviously haven’t. In fact, it’s the opposite. Two weeks later today, we’re down to 60% in cash. That’s just the nature of this business. One moment you’re waiting, the next you find something worth buying,” he said.

2) Acing midcaps

Mobius highlights how his focus has always been on businesses with strong fundamentals. “We look at companies of all sizes, but mid-caps tend to be particularly interesting. They’re not always on the radar of big institutional investors, and that’s where we often find value.

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3) On India

While conceding that India remains his top market at the moment, he is concerned about what he called “regulatory red tape”. “Since our fund is new, we’ve found it slow and difficult to get proper access to the Indian market. The paperwork alone has held us back for months. If India wants to attract more long-term capital, simplifying these processes would go a long way,” he said.

Also Read: India still Mark Mobius’ biggest bet despite tariff heat, foresees swift FII comeback

4) US-China trade relations

Mobius said that while certain agreements have been reached, their implementation holds the key. In his view, non-tariff barriers will likely remain a sticking point. “This isn’t a situation where we can declare the negotiations finished and move on. It will be an ongoing process, with both sides needing to follow through,” the market bull said.

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