Despite the healthy headline numbers, analysts expect the company’s underlying growth in the jewellery business, which contributes nearly 88% of overall revenue, to moderate sequentially as higher gold prices and delayed festive purchases weigh on demand.
Brokerages largely expect Titan to report consolidated revenue growth in the range of 10–13% YoY, with standalone jewellery sales ex-bullion rising around 12–14%. The watches and eyewear divisions are also expected to post double-digit growth, reflecting steady consumer demand.
JM Financial estimates standalone sales growth of about 6% YoY, or 13% excluding bullion, driven primarily by a 12% increase in jewellery sales (ex-bullion), an 18% rise in watches, and a 12% gain in eyewear. The brokerage expects the standalone jewellery EBIT margin to come in at 11.1%, about 30 basis points lower than last year, given the impact of elevated gold prices and a slower studded jewellery mix.
Still, overall standalone EBITDA and PAT are projected to rise 43% and 46% YoY, respectively, largely due to the weak base effect from last year’s customs duty-related losses.
Kotak Equities also expects jewellery revenue to grow around 14% YoY, slower than the 25% growth seen a year ago. The firm attributed this moderation to a sharp surge in gold prices between August and September, up 18% in just six weeks, which likely postponed some festive-season purchases. However, early festive demand in southern markets is expected to have cushioned the impact.Kotak estimates the share of studded jewellery to stay flat YoY at around 30%, marking the first sign of recovery in this segment after four quarters of decline. The brokerage expects 22% growth in watches, driven by sustained demand for analogue models, and 14% growth in eyewear, supported by expanding retail presence and improving footfall.On the margin front, Kotak projects the standalone jewellery EBIT margin (ex-bullion) to hold steady at 11.3%, aided by cost efficiencies and a balanced product mix, offset by gold price inflation. Margins for the watches and eyewear segments are estimated at 16.5% and 10%, respectively.
Nuvama sees Titan’s overall revenue rising 13% YoY, led by 8% growth in core jewellery sales and double-digit growth across other verticals. It expects jewellery EBIT margins near 11%, reflecting subdued productivity amid high gold prices and a delayed festive demand cycle.
Motilal Oswal, meanwhile, models a 14% YoY increase in standalone revenue (ex-bullion) and expects Tanishq’s like-for-like sales to rise around 11%. The brokerage anticipates stable EBIT margins of about 11.5% in the jewellery segment and sees continued strength in CaratLane, whose revenue is projected to climb 25% YoY with flat margins of 7%.
While gold price volatility and delayed festive spending could limit near-term upside, brokerages remain positive on Titan’s long-term growth trajectory, citing its strong balance sheet, brand equity, and diversified product portfolio.
(Disclaimer: Recommendations, suggestions, views and opinions given by the experts are their own. These do not represent the views of The Economic Times)
