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While GAIL, IGL, others rally up to 7%, this brokerage sees limited impact of PNGRB proposals. Here’s why

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March 24, 2025
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While GAIL, IGL, others rally up to 7%, this brokerage sees limited impact of PNGRB proposals. Here’s why
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Shares of GAIL and Mahanagar Gas Ltd (MGL) among other city gas distribution (CGD) companies surged up to 7% on Monday after the Petroleum and Natural Gas Regulatory Board (PNGRB) proposed amendments to gas transmission tariff regulations, a move welcomed by brokerages like CLSA and Citi. However, domestic brokerage firm Kotak Institutional Equities took a contrarian view, cautioning that the actual financial impact of these changes may be minimal.

According to reports, CLSA highlighted that the proposed changes could lower operating expenses (Opex) for Indraprastha Gas Ltd (IGL) and Mahanagar Gas Ltd (MGL), while calling GSPL “the biggest beneficiary.” Meanwhile, Citi, as reported by CNBC TV-18, noted that the ability to claim contractual LNG prices under the new structure will make GAIL a big beneficiary.

In contrast, Kotak described the reforms as progressive but stated that its impact will be small, pointing out that tariffs are already in place across the national gas grid, limiting the scope of gains.

“Based on the suggestions from the Industry Committee (IC), the PNGRB has started a public consultation process to amend the natural gas pipeline tariff regulations. In our view, the proposed changes are progressive and yet another step to bring nearly uniform tariffs across the country,” the domestic brokerage firm in its report.

However, as unified tariffs are already in place across the national gas grid, and as the pipeline tariffs are a small part of the overall gas costs for end-customers, the impact is relatively small, the report added.

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Also read: India stocks reverse 2025 losses on back of liquidity easing, and fiscal spendingFor GAIL specifically, Kotak estimates the benefit will be only about 2.5% of GAIL’s FY2026E EPS, as many affected networks have volumes as small, at around 5 mmscmd.Kotak further explained that while companies like IGL may see some upside, the amendments will be largely neutral for MGL and marginally positive for GAIL. The brokerage also emphasized that, despite structurally sound intentions, the impact is relatively small and unlikely to significantly alter the sector’s earnings outlook.

(Disclaimer: Recommendations, suggestions, views and opinions given by the experts are their own. These do not represent the views of The Economic Times)

Tags: brokeragecgd companiesciti brokerageclsa gail reportgailGAIL share pricegas transmission chargesgspl stockHeresIGLImpactindraprastha gasindraprastha gas ltdkotak institutional equitiesLimitedmahanagar gas ltdmahanagar gas stockPNGRBpngrb gas tariffproposalsRallysees
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